Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.524780 1.727585 1.943086 2.188676 2.460333 2.751160 3.085585
2024-12-29 1.311144 1.598891 1.923586 2.315377 2.773476 3.290260 3.915367
2025-01-05 1.064856 1.395277 1.790405 2.293728 2.913410 3.646744 4.575112
2025-01-12 0.887049 1.247368 1.703268 2.314838 3.105155 4.082653 5.372436
2025-01-19 0.731345 1.104534 1.604114 2.309206 3.263997 4.495568 6.184937
2025-01-26 0.634677 1.026257 1.579166 2.397257 3.553473 5.102401 7.301839
2025-02-02 0.546794 0.946853 1.542433 2.465243 3.824235 5.711411 8.479503
2025-02-09 0.464235 0.861849 1.486111 2.498471 4.050297 6.281017 9.655549
2025-02-16 0.396652 0.789113 1.438298 2.538495 4.290610 6.892493 10.943279
2025-02-23 0.325067 0.696065 1.344352 2.494252 4.398243 7.319855 12.000737
2025-03-02 0.258825 0.599025 1.228498 2.398477 4.413545 7.608530 12.874708
2025-03-09 0.219400 0.545389 1.180705 2.411903 4.607279 8.188862 14.238574
2025-03-16 0.180250 0.485292 1.114785 2.391250 4.753495 8.725493 15.609330
2025-03-23 0.158324 0.457951 1.108446 2.480740 5.102983 9.627246 17.640570
2025-03-30 0.126927 0.400014 1.029436 2.419710 5.175657 10.071676 18.958262
2025-04-06 0.105016 0.359414 0.979930 2.410495 5.343696 10.695116 20.625190
2025-04-13 0.085609 0.319377 0.923811 2.379109 5.465563 11.246996 22.210486
2025-04-20 0.074818 0.300747 0.914694 2.447810 5.791862 12.193237 24.549725
2025-04-27 0.064698 0.280848 0.898652 2.498851 6.087761 13.106098 26.890633
2025-05-04 0.054783 0.258011 0.870363 2.517369 6.317645 13.911579 29.089138
2025-05-11 0.046725 0.238595 0.847305 2.545068 6.569960 14.778724 31.456428
2025-05-18 0.037583 0.210941 0.794499 2.490525 6.635216 15.282548 33.172697
2025-05-25 0.028996 0.180972 0.727079 2.386747 6.576707 15.532006 34.417112